Protective Role of Tacrolimus, Deleterious Role of Age and Comorbidities in Liver Transplant Recipients With Covid-19: Results From the ELITA/ELTR Multi-center European Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Despite concerns that liver transplant (LT) recipients may be at increased risk of unfavorable outcomes from COVID-19 due the high prevalence of co-morbidities, immunosuppression and ageing, a detailed analysis of their effects in large studies is lacking. METHODS: Data from adult LT recipients with laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV2 infection were collected across Europe. All consecutive patients with symptoms were included in the analysis. RESULTS: Between March 1 and June 27, 2020, data from 243 adult symptomatic cases from 36 centers and 9 countries were collected. Thirty-nine (16%) were managed as outpatients while 204 (84%) required hospitalization including admission to the ICU (39 of 204, 19.1%). Forty-nine (20.2%) patients died after a median of 13.5 (10-23) days, respiratory failure was the major cause. After multivariable Cox regression analysis, age >70 (HR, 4.16; 95% CI, 1.78-9.73) had a negative effect and tacrolimus (TAC) use (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.31-0.99) had a positive independent effect on survival. The role of co-morbidities was strongly influenced by the dominant effect of age where comorbidities increased with the increasing age of the recipients. In a second model excluding age, both diabetes (HR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.06-3.58) and chronic kidney disease (HR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.05-3.67) emerged as associated with death CONCLUSIONS: Twenty-five percent of patients requiring hospitalization for COVID-19 died, the risk being higher in patients older than 70 and with medical co-morbidities, such as impaired renal function and diabetes. Conversely, the use of TAC was associated with a better survival thus encouraging clinicians to keep TAC at the usual dose.

Complete blood count might help to identify subjects with high probability of testing positive to SARS-CoV-2.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has dramatically increased the workload for health systems and a consequent need to optimise resources has arisen, including the selection of patients for swab tests. We retrospectively reviewed consecutive patients presenting to the emergency department with symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 and undergoing swab tests for SARS-CoV-2. Complete blood counts (CBCs) were analysed looking for predictors of test positivity. Eight significant predictors were identified and used to build a 'complete' CBC score with a discriminatory power for COVID-19 diagnosis of AUC 92% (p<0.0001). When looking at the weight of individual variables, mean corpuscular volume (MCV), age, platelets and eosinophils (MAPE: MCV ≤90 fL, 65 points; age ≥45 years, 100 points; platelets ≤180×103/µL, 73 points; eosinophils <0.01/µL, 94 points) gave the highest contribution and were used to build a 'simplified' MAPE score with a discriminatory power of AUC 88%. By setting the cut-off MAPE score at ≥173 points, sensitivity and specificity for COVID-19 diagnosis were 83% and 82%, respectively, and the actual test positivity rate was 60% as compared to 6% of patients with MAPE score <173 points (odds ratio 23.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 9.1-58.3, p-value <0.0001). In conclusion, CBC-based scores have potential for optimising the SARS-CoV-2 testing process: if these findings are confirmed in the future, swab tests may be waived for subjects with low score and uncertain symptoms, while they may be considered for asymptomatic or oligosymptomatic patients with high scores.